A demographic model of measles epidemics

被引：5
|
作者：
Duncan, SR
Scott, S
Duncan, CJ
机构：
[1] Univ Liverpool, Sch Biol Sci, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England
[2] Univ Oxford, Dept Engn Sci, Oxford OX1 3PJ, England
来源：
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION-REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE | 1999年 / 15卷 / 02期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1023/A:1006224902376
中图分类号：
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号：
摘要：
Liverpool, U.K., 1863-1900, has been used as a model to explore the interaction between measles epidemics and the population dynamics in an overcrowded community with inadequate nutrition using a non-linear model which allows the estimation of certain underlying demographic parameters. The results are consistent with a system that is driven by an oscillation in the transmission parameter that is compounded of an oscillation in autumn temperatures (at the resonant frequency of the system, 2.4 years) and, secondarily, by an oscillation in wheat prices (wavelength = 5.3 years, twice that of the epidemics).
引用
收藏
页码：185 / 198
页数：14
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