Diffusion of Information in Social Networks: Is It All Local?

Recent studies on the diffusion of information in social networks have largely focused on models based on the influence of local friends. In this paper, we challenge the generalizability of this approach and revive theories introduced by social scientists in the context of diffusion of innovations to model user behavior. To this end, we study various diffusion models in two different online social networks; Digg and Twitter. We first evaluate the applicability of two representative local influence models and show that the behavior of most social networks users are not captured by these local models. Next, driven by theories introduced in the diffusion of innovations research, we introduce a novel diffusion model called Gaussian Logit Curve Model (GLCM) that models user behavior with respect to the behavior of the general population. Our analysis shows that GLCM captures user behavior significantly better than local models, especially in the context of Digg. Aiming to capture both the local and global signals, we introduce various hybrid models and evaluate them through statistical methods. Our methodology models each user separately, automatically determining which users are driven by their local relations and which users are better defined through adopter categories, therefore capturing the complexity of human behavior.