Disruptive Innovation: A Dedicated Forecasting Framework

This paper describes the design of a forecasting framework to predict disruptive innovations. First, the nature and characteristics of disruptive innovation are presented, as well as the conditions that enable such a phenomenon. Individual factors that feed into disruptive innovations are identified, as well as formulae to allocate quantifiable measurement to these factors. Suitable principles from two existing approaches to forecasting are adopted to put forward a new framework. This will consist of a four-step process that uses both mathematical models and the judgemental method. The findings are based on work that is part of a MSc dissertation [1].