GLOBAL WARMING, IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE AND ADAPTATION STRATEGY

Sensitivity of the Southeastern US agriculture sector to temperature increases will be based largely on accompanying changes in precipitation, extent of the warming, and relative impact on competing crops grown in the area. The impact of climate change in 10 Southeastern US counties was investigated under three different climate scenarios for two different reference years (2030 and 2090). Seven major crops grown in the area were selected to study the impact on crop yield, irrigation acreage, and optimal choice of crops in a representative farm in each of the southeastern states. If warming is moderate and also brings a considerable increase in precipitationas indicated by the Hadley modelthen, the effect on yields, water use, and income will be mostly benign. If warming is moderate without increased precipitation and the water for irrigation is available, then the effects on the agriculture sector are still mostly negligible. If warming is not moderate and no increased precipitation materializes, farmers could realize quite dramatic negative consequences for row crop agriculture in the Southeastern United States.