What Makes a Message Real? The Effects of Perceived Realism of Alcohol- and Drug-Related Messages on Personal Probability Estimation

Perceived lack of realism in alcohol advertising messages promising positive outcomes and antialcohol and antidrug messages portraying negative outcomes of alcohol consumption has been a cause for public health concern. This study examined the effects of perceived realism dimensions on personal probability estimation through identification and message minimization. Data collected from college students in U.S. Midwest in 2010 (N = 315) were analyzed with multilevel structural equation modeling. Plausibility and narrative consistency mitigated message minimization, but they did not influence identification. Factuality and perceptual quality influenced both message minimization and identification, but their effects were smaller than those of typicality. Typicality was the strongest predictor of probability estimation. Implications of the results and suggestions for future research are provided.