An assessment model of progress and risk for substation construction under the background of Energy Internet

With the rapid development of the economy, the main grid of the city can't meet the load demand, and it is urgent to improve the structure of power supply and capacity of the grid, which will provide guarantee for the construction of a world-class city integrated energy internet. Substation project construction plays a key role in the improvement of the main grid structure. The risk of power grid construction exists in every stage of the life cycle of the construction project, and risk of progress is particularly prominent. A assessment model of progress and risk for substation construction based on the method of decision tree is proposed in this paper. On the basis of typical critical path of substation construction project, the article analysis the influence of the risk factors on the progress of the project by use of decision tree method, the dynamic index is constructed to modify the early reward or lag penalty when calculating the profit and loss value of risk conditions, which makes the evaluation result more practical. Quantitative evaluation index is constructed and the feasibility of this model is illustrated by the actual case of substation construction in Tianjin. Model evaluation results can be used to evaluate the risk factors and provide guidance for the substation construction manager of progress risk management decisions.