Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: modelling future trends in Australia

Objectives To develop a model to predict future socioeconomic inequalities in body mass index (BMI) and obesity. Design Microsimulation modelling using BMI data from adult participants of Australian Health Surveys, and published data on the relative risk of mortality in relation to BMI and socioeconomic position (SEP), based on education. Setting Australia. Participants 74 329 adults, aged 20 and over from Australian Health Surveys, 1995-2015. Primary and secondary outcome measures The primary outcomes were BMI trajectories and obesity prevalence by SEP for four birth cohorts, born 10 years apart, centred on 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970. Results Simulations projected persistent or widening socioeconomic inequality in BMI and obesity over the adult life course, for all birth cohorts. Recent birth cohorts were predicted to have greater socioeconomic inequality by middle age, compared with earlier cohorts. For example, among men, there was no inequality in obesity prevalence at age 60 for the 1940 birth cohort (low SEP 25% (95% CI 17% to 34%); high SEP 26% (95% CI 19% to 34%)), yet for the 1970 birth cohort, obesity prevalence was projected to be 51% (95% CI 43% to 58%) and 41% (95% CI 36% to 46%) for the low and high SEP groups, respectively. Notably, for more recent birth cohorts, the model predicted the greatest socioeconomic inequality in severe obesity (BMI > 35 kg/m(2)) at age 60. Conclusions Lower SEP groups and more recent birth cohorts are at higher risk of obesity and severe obesity, and its consequences in middle age. Prevention efforts should focus on these vulnerable population groups in order to avoid future disparities in health outcomes. The model provides a framework for further research to investigate which interventions will be most effective in narrowing the gap in socioeconomic disparities in obesity in adulthood.