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Towards a methodology for testing models as hypotheses in the inexact sciences
被引:55
|作者:
Beven, Keith
[1
]
机构:
[1] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, England
来源:
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES
|
2019年
/
475卷
/
2224期
关键词:
epistemic uncertainty;
runoff coefficients;
hydrological models;
SOIL-MOISTURE;
UNCERTAINTY;
HYDROLOGY;
EQUIFINALITY;
CATCHMENT;
DISCHARGE;
RUNOFF;
GROUNDWATER;
FRAMEWORK;
TRITIUM;
D O I:
10.1098/rspa.2018.0862
中图分类号:
O [数理科学和化学];
P [天文学、地球科学];
Q [生物科学];
N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号:
07 ;
0710 ;
09 ;
摘要:
This paper reviews the issues involved in treating hydrology as an example of an inexact science faced with significant epistemic uncertainties. It proposes a novel method for developing limits of acceptability for testing hydrological models as hypotheses about how a catchment hydrological system might function. The approach is based only on an analysis of the available observations and the consideration of event mass balance for successive rainfall-runoff events. It is shown that there are many events that are subject to epistemic uncertainties in the input data so that mass balance is not satisfied. The proposed approach allows taking these epistemic uncertainties into account in a pragmatic way before any model runs are made. It is an approach that might be applicable in other areas of environmental science where similar basic principles are fundamental to models, but which might not be satisfied by the observations that are used for model evaluation.
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页数:19
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