A Nonparametric Estimation on the Effects of Import and Export Trade to Economic Growth in China

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 1997 to 2008, this paper uses the method of nonparametric local linear kernel estimation to study the relations of physical capital stock, labor capital, export trade and import trade with GDP. The research results are summarized as follows: (a) the above mentioned four factors have positive significant impacts to GDP; (b)the pointwise regression elasticity estimates of export trade and import trade with respect to four factors have both types of "U" and inverted "U" shapes. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of Harbin University of Science and Technology