Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

被引:116
|
作者
Ramos, M. H. [1 ]
van Andel, S. J. [2 ]
Pappenberger, F. [3 ]
机构
[1] Irstea, Hydrol Grp, UR HBAN, Antony, France
[2] UNESCO IHE Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands
[3] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England
关键词
WEATHER FORECASTS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTS; ECONOMIC VALUE; UNCERTAINTY; SYSTEM; MODEL; PREDICTION; BENEFITS; SKILL;
D O I
10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.
引用
收藏
页码:2219 / 2232
页数:14
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Optimal probabilistic forecasts: When do they work?
    Martin, Gael M.
    Loaiza-Maya, Ruben
    Maneesoonthorn, Worapree
    Frazier, David T.
    Ramirez-Hassan, Andres
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2022, 38 (01) : 384 - 406
  • [2] Why Do Pooled Forecasts Do Better Than Individual Forecasts Ex Post?
    Nocetti, Diego
    Smith, William T.
    [J]. ECONOMICS BULLETIN, 2006, 4
  • [3] Why do some probabilistic forecasts lack reliability?
    Kubo, Yuki
    [J]. JOURNAL OF SPACE WEATHER AND SPACE CLIMATE, 2019, 9
  • [4] Better patient awareness can lead to better treatment decisions
    Devi, B. C. R.
    [J]. SURGICAL ONCOLOGY-OXFORD, 2009, 18 (01): : 1 - 2
  • [5] Geographic scale and probabilistic forecasts: a trade-off for protective decisions?
    Shivers-Williams, Cassandra A.
    Klockow-McClain, Kimberly E.
    [J]. NATURAL HAZARDS, 2021, 105 (02) : 2283 - 2306
  • [6] Geographic scale and probabilistic forecasts: a trade-off for protective decisions?
    Cassandra A. Shivers-Williams
    Kimberly E. Klockow-McClain
    [J]. Natural Hazards, 2021, 105 : 2283 - 2306
  • [7] To do or not to do: How successful leaders make better decisions
    Bell, Linda
    [J]. CRITICAL CARE NURSE, 2006, 26 (06) : 67 - 68
  • [8] DIAGNOSIS AND DECISIONS - CAN WE DO BETTER
    HOFFBRAND, BI
    [J]. POSTGRADUATE MEDICAL JOURNAL, 1987, 63 (743) : 729 - 730
  • [9] How Good Data Lead to Better Safety Decisions
    Hughes, Jonathan
    Council, Forrest M.
    [J]. ITE JOURNAL-INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERS, 2012, 82 (04): : 14 - 18
  • [10] Do elections lead to informed public decisions?
    Swank, Otto H.
    Visser, Bauke
    [J]. PUBLIC CHOICE, 2006, 129 (3-4) : 435 - 460