Rate of forearm bone loss is associated with an increased risk of fracture independently of bone mass in postmenopausal women: The OFELY study

Introduction: The level of BMD is a major determinant of the risk of fragility fractures, but the role of the rate of postmenopausal bone loss is still unclear. Materials and Methods: In the OFELY study, we analyzed the risk of fracture in 671 postmenopausal women (mean age, 62.2 +/- 9 years), according to the rate of bone loss. BMD was measured annually by DXA at the forearm, with a mean number of measurements of 10.3 +/- 2.6. Peripheral fractures, all confirmed by radiographs, were prospectively registered, and vertebral fractures were evaluated with spine radiographs every 4 years. Results: During a median (interquartile range [IQ]) of 11.2 years (11-12.3 years) of follow-up, 183 incident fragility fractures including 53 vertebral and 130 nonvertebral fractures were recorded in 134 women. The annual median IQ rate of bone loss, calculated from the slope, was -0.30 +/- 0.76% at the mid-radius, -0.55 +/- 0.79% at the distal radius, and -0.40 +/- 0.96% at the ultradistal radius. Women with incident fracture had a rate of bone loss (before fracture) higher by 38-53% than those without fracture (p = 0.0003-0.016). Using multivariate Cox regression models, we found that bone loss in the highest tertile at the mid-radius, distal radius, and ultradistal radius was associated with a significant increased risk of all fractures with an hazard ratio from 1.45 to 1.70 (p = 0.02 to p = 0.009 after adjusting for age, previous fractures, maternal history of fracture, physical activity, grip strength, falls, and baseline BMD). Conclusions: The rate of bone loss in postmenopausal women is significantly associated with fracture risk independently of other well-known predictors such as BMD and history of fractures.