Assessment of added activity of an antitumor agent

An unprecedented number of novel oncology drugs are under preclinical and clinical development, and nearly all are developed in combinations. With an over-reliance on biological hypotheses, there is less effort to establish single agent activity before initiating late clinical development. This may be contributing to a decreased success rate going from phase 1 to approval in the immunotherapy era. Growing evidence in clinical trial data shows that the treatment benefit from most approved combination therapies can be explained by the independent drug action model. Using this working model, we develop a simple index to measure the added antitumor activity of a new drug based on mean response duration, an endpoint that naturally combines both response status and duration information for all patients, which is shown to be highly predictive of clinical benefit of FDA-approved anti-PD-(L)1 immunotherapies. This index sheds light on challenges and opportunities in contemporary oncology drug development and provides a practical tool to assist with decision-making in early clinical trials.