Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models

被引：10

作者：

Wahiduzzaman, Md ^{[1
,2
]}

Yeasmin, Alea ^{[3
]}

Luo, Jing-Jia ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Inst Climate & Applicat Res ICAR, Nanjing, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Tasmania, Inst Marine & Antarctic Studies, Hobart, Tas, Australia

[3] Federat Univ, Sch Sci Engn & Technol, Ballarat, Vic, Australia

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH | 2020年 / 245卷

关键词：

Cyclone movement; Atmospheric climate variables; Generalised additive model; Generalised linear model; North Indian Ocean; GENESIS FREQUENCY; HURRICANE RISK; CIRCULATION; FORECAST; TRACKS; PROSPECTS; PACIFIC; STORMS; BAY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105089

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

In this study, the contribution of atmospheric climate variables to the prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has been investigated. Statistical forecast models are developed through generalised linear model (GLM) and generalised additive model (GAM) for tropical cyclone trajectories over the NIO using atmospheric climate variables as predictors. TC from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and sets of climate predictor data were analysed for a period of 35-year (1979-2013). The velocity field is predicted by fitting GAM in each month and season. Hindcast validation method is applied to assess the reliability of the model. The skill of the GAM model is compared with GLM and found to be more successful in forecasting TC movement over the NIO region.

引用

页数：13

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