TURKISH AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS TO EURO-MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES: A GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

This paper adopts panel cointegration methods to estimate a gravity model of Turkish agricultural exports to 30 Euro-Mediterranean countries. Results show the conventional variables of economic size and distance to importing markets along with relative factor endowments are significant determinants of agricultural exports. Conversely, similarity of economic size, bilateral free trade agreements with Euro-Mediterranean countries, religious commonality, and the expatriate Turkish population in importing countries are found to be insignificant. Whilst a focus on exporting to large and near neighbouring countries is sensible, Turkey also needs to pay careful attention to the competing demands on its agricultural land from urbanisation and tourism. We speculate that recent changes in Turkey's domestic agricultural policy may impact adversely on exports.