From robustness to resilience: avoiding policy traps in the long term

The likelihood of being faced with trap-like situations is a worrisome aspect of long-term policy-making, such as for climate change adaptation. Even when a policy may be effective in the short-term, changes in problem or policy contexts may render it ineffective over time. The design of 'robust' policies, meaning those which are able to self-adjust to linear changes in their environment, can be contrasted with 'resilient' ones which are able to adjust not only to linear, but also non-linear shifts in their contexts. Building on Boonstra and de Boer (AMBIO 43:260-274, 2014)'s argument that traps should not be considered as a static phenomenon; rather their emergence and development is often directly influenced by history and path-dependency, this paper elaborates how trap-like situations can emerge with increase in climate uncertainty over time. Three strategies to address policy traps due to climate change form subjects of inquiry in this paper: avoiding traps in the first place, designing against traps, and overcoming traps once in them. Each requires a specific type of design thinking and practice.