The Role of Forests in the Implementation of Russia's Low-Carbon Development Strategy

The potential role of forests in achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation by 2060 is analyzed. It is shown that the key rate in the Strategy for the Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions (LCDS) on decarbonization by increasing the net absorption by forests from forest climate projects is insufficiently substantiated. The LCDS proposes a wildly optimistic scenario to increase the net absorption of greenhouse gases by forests up to 1200 million tons of CO2-eq. per year. Here, according to our calculations, a practical ceiling is approximately 900 million tons of CO2-eq. per year by 2050 at a constant volume of forest management. The reason for this discrepancy is the incomplete accounting of forest fire emissions in the forest greenhouse gas balance and the overestimation of the absorption potential in climate projects. Achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation may require more decarbonization efforts based on technology upgrades than is planned in the LCDS. The analysis carried out shows that the stake on forest-climatic projects to achieve carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation within the framework of the LCDS probably requires significant adjustment. The revealed differences in the predicted values of the decarbonization parameters and the uncertainty in the interpretation of forest climate projects and their role in the LCDS make it necessary to continue the work to find the optimal scenario for the decarbonization of the Russian Federation.