Developmental Trajectories and Predictors of Juvenile Detention, Placement, and Jail Among Youth with Out-of-Home Child Welfare Placement

Youth who experience out-of-home placement in the child welfare system are more likely to have justice system involvement. However, research has yet to fully address the underlying heterogeneity of trajectories and trajectory groups regarding substantial justice system involvement within this population. Using administrative data from a child welfare placement sample of 794 children and youth in a large, urban county in Pennsylvania, this longitudinal study seeks to identify trajectory groups and their predictors as related to juvenile detention, placement, and county jail involvement. Five groups were identified and labeled as follows: (a) No/Low-Involved (70.7%), (b) Early Age Involvement (5.9%), (c) Late Adolescent/Adult Involvement (7.9%), (d) Short-Term/Highly Involved (7.8%), and (e) Chronically Involved (7.7%). We present descriptive profiles of these groups to highlight their differences. We then use multinomial logistic regression to examine predictors reflecting demographics, child welfare experiences, and experiences in other systems that further differentiate the 5 groups. Results demonstrate that placement factors affect the groups differently; for example, ever being in congregate care was significant only for the Chronically Involved justice system group. The No/Low justice system group had the highest percentage of total time in care in foster homes and had the highest percentage of young people with only 1 placement type. This study further demonstrates the need to better understand the heterogeneity of child-level characteristics within the child welfare population as a necessary step to disentangling the complex relationships between child welfare placements and justice system involvement. Further implications for research, policy, and practice are presented.