Exposure to climate change in Central Europe: What can be gained from regional climate projections for management decisions of protected areas?

Climate change is expected to become an important driver influencing biodiversity. To protect biological diversity in the long term, nature conservationists must include potential climate change impacts in their management decisions. In order to incorporate effective climate change adaption strategies in the management of protected areas, potential threats of climate change need to be identified. In this study, climate model projections have been evaluated to derive information about the future exposure of nature parks to climate change. Indicators reflecting climate boundary conditions were selected in a cooperative process, considering both scientifically reliable climate scenario analysis and the requirements of park managers. The evaluation exhibits large uncertainties depending on the indicator. While for temperature, a warming trend is projected for all the regions, future projections for precipitation show the largest inter-model uncertainties. The Climatic Water Balance reflects the potential water availability and aids clarification to stakeholders, as it incorporates the temperature trend. The analysis robustly indicates a prolongation for the climatic growing season. The main challenges related to climate model information for decision-making are the uncertainties, different scales of climate and ecosystem processes and the finding of a common communication level for knowledge transfer. The results are useful for climate-influenced decision-making and provide one part of evidence for making adaptation decisions.