Long-term storminess and sea level variations on the Estonian coast of the Baltic Sea in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation

被引:41
|
作者
Jaagus, Jaak [1 ]
Suursaar, Uelo [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tartu, Inst Ecol & Earth Sci, EE-51014 Tartu, Estonia
[2] Univ Tartu, Estonian Marine Inst, EE-12618 Tallinn, Estonia
关键词
storm; sea level; acceleration; atmospheric circulation; climate change; Baltic Sea; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; NCEP-NCAR REANALYSIS; CYCLONE ACTIVITY; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; SCANDINAVIAN STORMINESS; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE; DECADAL VARIATIONS; CLIMATE CHANGES; FUTURE CHANGES; FREQUENCY;
D O I
10.3176/earth.2013.07
中图分类号
P5 [地质学];
学科分类号
0709 ; 081803 ;
摘要
Variations and trends in storminess (number of storm days), and mean and maximum sea levels were analysed along the Estonian coast during the last century. An increase in storminess was detected at the Vilsandi and Sorve stations, although inhomogeneities in the wind data make the trends less reliable. Mean sea level trends depend on the post-glacial isostatic land uplift, which is different in different parts of Estonia. After eliminating the influence of the uplift, the estimated sea level rise was 2.2-3.2 mm yr(-1) during 1950-2011, which was higher than the global mean (1.9 mm yr(-1)). The majority of increases in storminess and sea level have been observed during the cold half-year (November March). An increase in annual maximum sea level has been much higher than in mean values, which indicates a strong increase in the flooding risk. Atmospheric circulation is closely related to the frequencies of storms and high sea level events, especially during the cold season. Variables describing the intensity of zonal circulation (westerlies), such as the Arctic oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation indices, and the frequency of the circulation form W according to the Vangengeim-Girs classification are highly correlated with storminess and sea level on the Estonian coast during 1950-2011. Negative correlations appeared in case of the circulation form E and the SCAND index.
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页码:73 / 92
页数:20
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