The Influence of Market Returns and Government Payments on Canadian Farmland Values

This study estimates the impact of changes in market returns and government payments on farmland values across Canada using data from 1959 to 2009. A recursive simultaneous equation model is estimated to account for the counter-cyclical relationship between market returns and government payments. The results indicate that farmland values are more responsive to changes in market returns than in government payments, but both are important drivers of land values. The elasticity of land values with respect to government payments is lower than has been observed in the United States. In addition, the partial decoupling of government payments has not reduced their impact on farmland values.