Modelling during an emergency: the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

被引:20
|
作者
Lee, B. Y. [1 ]
Haidari, L. A. [1 ]
Lee, M. S. [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Pittsburgh, Publ Hlth Computat & Operat Res PHICOR Grp, Sch Med, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
关键词
Emergency; influenza; modelling; pandemic; policy-making; simulation; A H1N1; COST-EFFECTIVENESS; TRANSMISSION; VACCINATION; OUTBREAK; IMPACT; VIRUS; STRATEGIES; DYNAMICS; SCHOOL;
D O I
10.1111/1469-0691.12284
中图分类号
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号
100401 ;
摘要
During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, decision-makers had access to mathematical and computational models that were not available in previous pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968. How did models contribute to policy and action during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic? Modelling encountered six primary challenges: (i) expectations of modelling were not clearly defined; (ii) appropriate real-time data were not readily available; (iii) modelling results were not generated, shared, or disseminated in time; (iv) decision-makers could not always decipher the structure and assumptions of the models; (v) modelling studies varied in intervention representations and reported results; and (vi) modelling studies did not always present the results or outcomes that are useful to decision-makers. However, there were also seven general successes: (i) modelling characterized the role of social distancing measures such as school closure; (ii) modelling helped to guide data collection; (iii) modelling helped to justify the value of the vaccination programme; (iv) modelling helped to prioritize target populations for vaccination; (v) modelling addressed the use of antiviral medications; (vi) modelling helped with health system preparedness planning; and (vii) modellers and decision-makers gained a better understanding of how to work with each other. In many ways, the 2009 pandemic served as practice and a learning opportunity for both modellers and decision-makers. Modellers can continue working with decision-makers and other stakeholders to help overcome these challenges, to be better prepared when the next emergency inevitably arrives.
引用
收藏
页码:1014 / 1022
页数:9
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Influenza stigma during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic
    Earnshaw, Valerie A.
    Quinn, Diane M.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, 2013, 43 : E109 - E114
  • [2] Pandemic: 2009 Influenza A (H1N1)
    Shulman, Stanford T.
    [J]. PEDIATRIC ANNALS, 2009, 38 (12): : 635 - 636
  • [3] 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic
    Woo, Teri Moser
    [J]. JOURNAL OF PEDIATRIC HEALTH CARE, 2010, 24 (04) : 258 - 266
  • [4] 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1)
    Cazzadori, Angelo
    Conti, Michela
    Concia, Ercote
    [J]. MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESPIRATORY MEDICINE, 2009, 4 (06): : 401 - 402
  • [5] 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic
    Kumate Rodriguez, Jesus
    [J]. CIRUGIA Y CIRUJANOS, 2009, 77 (03): : 157 - 158
  • [6] Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza
    Patel, M.
    Dennis, A.
    Flutter, C.
    Khan, Z.
    [J]. BRITISH JOURNAL OF ANAESTHESIA, 2010, 104 (02) : 128 - 142
  • [7] Pandemic Planning and Response in Academic Pediatric Emergency Departments During the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic
    Filice, Clara E.
    Vaca, Federico E.
    Curry, Leslie
    Platis, Stephanie
    Lurie, Nicole
    Bogucki, Sandy
    [J]. ACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE, 2013, 20 (01) : 54 - 62
  • [8] Experience of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) 2009
    Kebabci, Nesrin
    Akalin, Halis
    Boluk, Gulcin
    Oguz-Ayarci, Ayse
    Kazak, Esra
    Topal, Ugur
    Yorulmaz, Hakan
    Akkose, Sule
    Ozvatan-Sener, Tulay
    Aslan, Emel
    Koprucuoglu, Duygu
    Heper, Yasemin
    Yilmaz, Emel
    Kahveci, Ferda
    Mistik, Resit
    Helvaci, Safiye
    [J]. KLIMIK JOURNAL, 2012, 25 (03) : 117 - 121
  • [9] Hajj and 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1
    不详
    [J]. LANCET, 2009, 374 (9703): : 1724 - 1724
  • [10] The pandemic influenza virus H1N1/2009
    Stech, J.
    Beer, M.
    Vahlenkamp, T.
    Harder, T.
    [J]. BUNDESGESUNDHEITSBLATT-GESUNDHEITSFORSCHUNG-GESUNDHEITSSCHUTZ, 2010, 53 (12) : 1231 - 1237