Air temperature and incidence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae

Background: Higher outdoor temperature may be related to an increase in antibiotic resistant bacteria. We investigated the association between local outdoor air temperature and the incidence of extended-spectrum betalactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) correcting for known drivers of antibiotic resistance. Methods: We performed a time-series regression study using prospectively collected weekly surveillance data on all ESBL-PE isolated from in- and outpatients of the University Hospital Basel, a tertiary care center in Switzerland, between 01/2008-12/2017. Temperature was measured hourly at the meteorological institute of the University Basel next to our institution over this time period. A time-series approach using a Poisson regression model and different lag terms for delayed exposure effects was performed to assess associations between minimal, mean and maximal weekly temperature and the number of ESBL-PE recovered. Results: Over 10 years, recovery of ESBL-PE increased (annual incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.14, 95%CI 1.13-1.16), while mean weekly temperature measures remained stable. In multivariable analyses, increasing temperature was associated with higher recovery rates of ESBL-PE after three to four weeks, correcting for potential confounders, such as the number of admissions, proportion of long-term nursing facility- and ICU-admissions, age, Charlson comorbidity index and consumption of antimicrobials (IRRs per 10 degrees C ranging from 1.14 to 1.22, 95% CIs 1.07-1.33). These trends remained when analyzing correlations between temperature with the proportion of extended spectrum cephalosporin resistance of all recovered Enterobacteriaceae. Conclusions: Higher outdoor temperature may be associated with an increase of ESBL-PE-incidence, independent of important confounders, such as antimicrobial consumption and thus should be considered for future resistance-trajectories.