Comparison of Four-Step Versus Tour-Based Models for Prediction of Travel Behavior Before and After Transportation System Changes

The main objective of this study was to examine the performance of the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission trip-based and tour-based frameworks in the context of three specific projects started and completed within the past 20 years in the Columbus, Ohio, metropolitan area. Region- and project-level comparisons of the performance of the trip- and tour-based models were made for three scenario years: 1990, 2000, and 2005. The region-level analysis was undertaken in the context of four travel dimensions on the basis of data availability and observed data to model output compatibility. These four dimensions were vehicle ownership, work flow distribution, work flow distribution by time of day, and average work trip travel time. The tour-based model performed better overall than the trip-based model for all four dimensions. The project-level comparative assessment of the predicted link volumes from the trip-based and the tour-based models was undertaken according to the observed link counts and roadway functional class. The results did not show any clear trends according to the performance of the models by functional class or year.