Evaluating the Risk of Establishing a Self-Sustaining Population of Non-Native Oysters Through Large-Scale Aquaculture in Chesapeake Bay

A multistep invasive species methodology was used to evaluate the probability that the deployment of sterile non-native oysters (Crassostrea ariakensis, called Asian oyster) in field-based aquaculture could give rise to a reproductive population in Chesapeake Bay. Several pathways that could potentially lead to the unintentional release of reproductive C. ariakensis from aquaculture were identified. For the four quantifiable pathways, a probability was estimated for each step based on knowledge of ecological rates. A conservative estimate for the number of reproductive C. ariakensis that could arise over one spawning season at a hypothetical aquaculture site was estimated. A statistical expansion of this probability estimated that it is highly likely that the cultivation of putatively sterile C. ariakensis would initiate a reproductive population in Chesapeake Bay over a 10-year time span. The potential benefits of restoration actions involving non-native species in estuarine ecosystems must be weighed against potential ecological risks. A probabilistic approach can provide a useful method for summarizing the risk of an unintended introduction that may occur despite a reasonable and presumably safe approach for realizing benefits of a non-native species in aquaculture. The results presented here have important implications for future proposals involving the commercial use of non-native species in natural ecosystems.