FORECASTING REGION'S ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

K.V. Motrichkin(1), A.V. Stepanov(2) FORECASTING REGION'S ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF INCOMPLETE INFORMATION The article considers the issues of constructing system dynamics economic models under the conditions when the available statistical data is small in volume. The analysis of various approaches to solving the problem of unsufficient data is carried out. The approaches to construction of dynamic models for forecasting are demonstrated, especially for those conditions when there is a lack of sufficient information for a full econometric estimation. It is suggested to introduce additional prerequisites which would enable overlooking several indices saving the estimation as a whole. Several approaches to construction of a forecasting model are described; such a model can perform adequate estimation on a insignificant data volume.