STOCHASTIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF PROJECTS CARRIED OUT IN A COMPANY OF CHEMICAL INDUSTRY

The paper presents an application of Reference Class Forecasting Method developed by Kahnemann and Tversky in planning and decision-making under uncertainty. This method is recommended by the American Planning Association as an additional one used during projects planning. Usually, according to project management methodologies recommendations, projects should be planned on the basis of statements of operations, however many of them fail and vast majority do not achieve the goals. The paper documents inaccuracy and risk in project planning in a company of chemical industry. Dozens of projects were analysed using statistical methods for further understanding of risks associated with planning. The paper presents risks unique to the industry under consideration. Based on the analysis important factors for planning were proposed.