Prediction of early (30-day) and late (30-90-day) mortality after radical cystectomy in a comprehensive cancer centre over two decades

Background Radical cystectomy (RC) is associated with substantial postoperative mortality. In this study, we analyzed early (30-day; 30 M) and late (30-90-day; 30-90 M) mortality after RC in a Dutch tertiary referral center and determined factors associated with 30 M, 30-90 M and 90-day mortality (90 M). Patients and methods We identified 823 patients who underwent RC for bladder cancer in the Netherlands Cancer Institute between 1997 and 2017. Predictive factors for mortality were analyzed to identify patients with a higher mortality risk. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to examine the influence of patient, surgical and histopathological variables on 30 M, 30-90 M and 90 M. Results Thirty-day mortality was 1.9% and 90 M was 6.0%. Multivariable analysis showed that age (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.1,p = 0.002) and ASA 3-4 (OR 3.57, 95% CI 1.25-10.16,p = 0.002) were significant predictors of 30 M while higher ASA score (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.31-6.5,p = 0.009) and higher pathological T stage (OR 8.8, 95% CI 1.9-40.4,p = 0.005) were associated with 30-90 M. Risk of 90 M was increased in patients with ASA 3-4 (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.2-4.9,p = 0.01), pT3-4 (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.27-7.57,p = 0.01) and positive LNs (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.25-4.98,p = 0.009). Conclusions Patient-related factors predicted 30 M whereas both patient-related and cancer-related factors predicted 30-90 M. This suggests that patient mix, i.e. patient- vs. cancer-related factors for 30 M and 30-90 M, should be taken into account if mortality rates are to be compared between hospitals.