The Ensemble Forecasting Technique of the Thunderstorm

The convective scale ensemble forecasting is performed by combining the mesoscale non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Institute ofAtmospheric Physics (IAP) 3-D convective cloud model based on the ensemble weather forecast theory and applied to the forecast of the characteristics of thunderstorms around Nan Jing. The ensemble forecasting of the thunderstorms is verified with the summer Doppler radar data of the thunderstorms in Nan Jing. Results show that the intensity and distribution of thunderstorms over the research area is reasonably predicted one day in advance. It is particularly good to forecast the distribution of the strong thunderstorms with the ensemble forecasting technique. Moreover, the reasonable explanation and application of the convective scale ensemble forecasting is of much importance for the early warning and monitoring of the local thunderstorms and mitigation of the thunder calamity.