A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to Modelling and Expressing Adversity

There is a significant, unmet requirement for risk and hazard (jointly referred to as adversities) enumeration methods that are applicable across currently stovepiped domains, replicable and scalable in approach. This paper considers the issues relating to replicable and scalable methods for the enumeration of adversities, and proposes a method that provides an understanding of all categories of risk, not only those arising from the actions of cyber antagonists, but also from factors such as natural disasters. The method provides an approach to modelling adversity in a way that combines differing types of adversity, an absolute scale for the enumeration of adversity impact, a summary statistic model and plot that reflect the probabilistic nature of adversities, and the Annualised Expectation of Risk (AER) as a way to facilitate common interpretation of adversities across and within differing communities of interest.