Malaria Transmission Potential in the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yangtze River, China

被引：8
|
作者：
Wang Duo Quan [1 ]
Tang Lin Hua [1 ]
Gu Zhen Cheng [1 ]
Zheng Xiang [1 ]
Jiang Wei Kang [1 ]
机构：
[1] WHO Collaborating Ctr Malaria Schistosomiasis & F, Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Parasit Dis, Shanghai 200025, Peoples R China
来源：
BIOMEDICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES | 2013年 / 26卷 / 01期
关键词：
Malaria; Transmission potential; Yangtze River Three Gorges Reservoir; Riparian zone;
D O I：
10.3967/0895-3988.2013.01.007
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
Objective To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Methods Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, and Zigui were selected for investigating the malaria transmission potential in the reservoir. Transmission potential was estimated by mathematical modeling and evaluation of the local malaria situation. Factors that influenced the transmission potential were analyzed using Poisson regression analysis in combination with Grey Systematic Theory (based on evaluation by the Delphi method). Results Indirect fluorescent antibody data and the incidence of malaria in the local population were consistent with the malaria transmission potential calculated for the area. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant association between the riparian zone and the man-biting rate. Conclusion The risk of a malaria epidemic can be forecasted using the malaria transmission potential parameters investigated here which was closely correlated with the riparian zone.
引用
收藏
页码：54 / 62
页数：9
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