Crime, criminal justice, and criminology for a smaller planet: Some notes on the 21st century

This analysis attempts to project changes in types of crime and criminal justice response to crime in the early decades of the 21st century by assuming continuity in the technological, economic, and political trends of the last years of the 20th century. I predict that shifts in general rates of crime will be less important than changes in particular types of offense in stable nations, and that rates of property crime will show more transnational similarity than rates and trends in serious violence. With respect to criminal justice practices, both technology and normative standards will exert pressure toward greater similarity in criminal justice practice among developed nations, with normative pressure being the more important for legal proceedings and punishment than technical change. The executioner is threatened by this trend, even in the United States. The prison warden has comfortable job security.