Estimating and Forecasting the Contribution Rate of Agriculture Scientific and Technological Progress Based on Solow Residual Method

The agricultural economy growth in Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps of China (XPXG) is closely related to the progress of agricultural science and technology. This paper set a model based on the Cobb-Douglas production function. It selected related statistical data about XPXG during 1956 to 2009, used the three kinds of material capital stock and a kind of human capital stock and made use of the least square method to estimate the output elasticity coefficient of the capital assert investment coefficient, the output elasticity coefficient of cultivated land, the output elasticity coefficient of agricultural machinery and employees, and used Solow Residual Method to estimate the contribution rate of all factors in the agricultural economy growth in XPXG. It thinks that contribution rate of agriculture scientific and technological progress shows the increasing trend. Since year 2000, the agriculture economic growth in XPXG is mainly pulled by the progress of science and technology. By forecasting the contribution rate of agriculture scientific and technological progress and technology progress, we find that the contribution rate of agriculture scientific and technological progress will be stably increasing during 2010 to 2020. The contribution rate of agriculture scientific and technological progress in XPXG will respectively reach to 59.42% and 61.9% in the period of the 12th Five Year Plan and the 13th Five Year Plan.