A probabilistic approach to aircraft structures risk assessment

A research program has been carried out at the University of Pisa, with the aim of defining a risk assessment methodology based on the probabilistic approach, keeping into proper consideration the distribution and scatter characteristics of the variables that mainly influence the fatigue/corrosion damage onset and growth. Based on such assumptions, a computer code has been implemented which, performing Monte Carlo simulations, generates realistic life distributions for typical components. The paper describes the main hypotheses on which the methodology is based and how the code has been implemented, together with the main results of a test program performed to obtain some input data, to verify the hypotheses about their distribution and to evaluate the numerical results obtained.