Consequential LCA of switching from maize silage-based to grass-based dairy systems

This study aimed to investigate the environmental consequences (on climate change and land use) of an increase in preference for grass-based milk in France using a consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) approach. This increase in preference was assumed to be satisfied domestically, by converting maize silage-based dairy farms (MS farm) to grass-based dairy farms (G farm) while keeping on-farm usable agricultural area and total milk production of farm constant. The possible consequences of an increase in preference for grass-based milk were identified based on cause and effect relationships. The conversion from MS to G farm reduced the use of soybean meal, changed the on-farm cropping pattern and produced more animals but less wheat and no rapeseed. Effects on on-farm soil C were predicted with the RothC model and on global land use change (LUC) with models of global agricultural markets (Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and Landbouw Economisch Instituut Trade Analysis Project (LEITAP)). System expansion using animals from a suckler beef production system was applied to estimate the impacts of milk and animal co-products from the dairy system. Land occupation and climate change impacts were estimated. The consequences of farm conversion were attributed only to the milk, as preference for grass-based milk drove the conversion process. The conversion from the MS to G farm increases land occupation and climate change impacts for the G farm, respectively, by 9 and 7 % according to GTAP and 14 and 51 % according to LEITAP. Land occupation and climate change impacts of milk produced by the G farm after conversion increased, respectively, by 82 and 13 % with GTAP and 123 and 97 % with LEITAP relative to those for the MS farm (before conversion). The production of additional wheat and rapeseed outside the G farm increased impacts of the G farm (by 29-69 % depending on impacts and model used). Results indicate that the farm conversion would probably have consequences on global LUC and that it is important to account for this in a LCA approach. Land use and land use change (LULUC) contributed to the impacts of grass-based milk, and results were highly sensitive to the LULUC model used. The many possible chain-of-event pathways that follow a change in preference for a given product yield high uncertainty in CLCA results. This study only assessed one possible way to meet the increase in preference for grass-based milk; it is necessary to perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate other possible scenarios resulting from this increase in preference.