Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence

被引：94
|
作者：
Tsai, Claire I. [1 ]
Klayman, Joshua [2 ]
Hastie, Reid [2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Toronto, Rotman Sch Management, Toronto, ON, Canada
[2] Univ Chicago, Grad Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
来源：
ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES | 2008年 / 107卷 / 02期
关键词：
Judgment; Confidence; Accuracy; Football; Overconfidence; Calibration;
D O I：
10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.01.005
中图分类号：
B849 [应用心理学];
学科分类号：
040203 ;
摘要：
When a person evaluates his or her confidence in a judgment, what is the effect of receiving more judgment-relevant information? We report three studies that show when judges receive more information, their confidence increases more than their accuracy, producing substantial confidence-accuracy discrepancies. Our results suggest that judges do not adjust for the cognitive limitations that reduce their ability to use additional information effectively. We place these findings in a more general framework of understanding the cues to confidence that judges use and how those cues relate to accuracy and calibration. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：97 / 105
页数：9
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