Bottom-up development of passenger travel demand scenarios in Japan considering heterogeneous actors and reflecting a narrative of future socioeconomic change

This paper provides a framework and procedure for developing mobility demand scenarios based on daily time use and service intensity of time use, and constructs a passenger travel demand scenario in Japan as a case study. Regarding long-term scenario development, construction of demand scenarios starting from daily life behavior has the potential to capture socioeconomic change transparently, comprehensively, and consistently. We applied this idea to consider the impacts of socioeconomic and technological changes on service demand from the perspective of change in time use. The current status of mobility demand in Japan was analyzed and its structure was reconstructed based on relevant national statistics. Contrasting future passenger travel demand scenarios in Japan, that is, low demand and high accessibility, were developed in accordance with qualitative scenarios and quantitative assumptions of four mega-trends: an aging population, gender equality, tertiary industrialization, and transport technology innovation. This framework enables a systematic and transparent reflection of a narrative of long-term service demand scenario development by considering heterogeneous actors.