Assessment of the risk of environmental and operational consequences from transport accidents with dry cargo ships (on the example of the Volga basin)

The quality of the country's transport system depends, among other things, on an effective system for assessing the risks of such traffic accidents and an established security system for the transport complex. The purpose of this study is to test a comprehensive mathematical model for assessing the risk of transport accidents at river facilities, taking into account both the purely environmental consequences of transport accidents in an incident with ships, and the impact of transport accidents on the operational and economic performance of the fleet. The object of the analysis was transport accidents with dry cargo vessels. The complex accident risk is predicted by multiplying the collision probabilities with the corresponding consequences. Among the sources of losses of non-ecological nature, the author considered: lost freight as a result of the idle time of the vessel; maintenance costs; losses from damage to property on board the ship and losses caused by death or damage to human health. To take into account these factors, the previously created database was supplemented with data on the downtime of ships, the timing of TP investigations, types of damage as a result of transport accidents. As a result of the studies performed, a classification of areas with a concentration of traffic accidents was created according to the level of possible risk, taking into account environmental and non-environmental factors.