The Differential Effects of "Democratic" Institutions on Dissent in Dictatorships

Why do some dictatorships face dissent while others do not? In this article, we argue that nominally democratic institutions created to co-opt the dictatorial opposition have different effects on the likelihood of elite and collective dissent. By providing concessions through the creation of parties and legislatures, dictators reduce the probability of elite mobilization (via a coup) against the regime. For everyday citizens, the creation of nominally democratic institutions has the opposite effect, increasing citizen grievances and helping citizens overcome the collective action problem associated with dissent. We find empirical support for our expectations: nominally democratic institutions are negatively associated with the likelihood of coups and positively associated with the likelihood of collective dissent. Our findings suggest that the creation of "democratic" institutions may sometimes threaten dictatorial rule rather than insulate it.