Profiling Residential PV Output based on Weekly Weather Forecast for Home Energy Management System

In this paper, the authors present a simple profiling procedure of weekly photovoltaic (PV) generation output for a sustainable energy house based on the historical data of solar irradiance and weather conditions. Weather conditions are classified into simple patterns such as sunny, cloudy, and rainy, and representative hourly profile of PV output is obtained from the most likely values of insolation under each weather condition. The system uses the text weather forecast and the probability of precipitation information as input to obtain the estimated weekly profile of PV output. From the results presented here it is shown that such a simple PV profile can be useful for rating the storage batteries and scheduling electric vehicle charging to better utilize the PV-generated electricity.