How does political instability affect economic growth?

被引:346
|
作者
Aisen, An [1 ]
Veiga, Francisco Jose [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Int Monetary Fund, Middle Eastern & Cent Asian Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA
[2] Univ Minho, P-4710057 Braga, Portugal
[3] NIPE, Escola Econ & Gestao, P-4710057 Braga, Portugal
关键词
Economic growth; Political instability; Growth accounting; Productivity; PANEL-DATA; PRIVATE INVESTMENT; POLICY UNCERTAINTY; INSTITUTIONS; INCOME; INFLATION;
D O I
10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2012.11.001
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
The purpose of this paper is to empirically determine the effects of political instability on economic growth. By using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering up to 169 countries, and 5-year periods from 1960 to 2004, we find that higher degrees of political instability are associated with lower growth rates of GDP per capita. Regarding the channels of transmission, we find that political instability adversely affects growth by lowering the rates of productivity growth and, to a smaller degree, physical and human capital accumulation. Finally, economic freedom and ethnic homogeneity are beneficial to growth, while democracy may have a small negative effect. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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页码:151 / 167
页数:17
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