A Novel Effectiveness Evaluation Method Based on Simultaneous Probabilistic Finite-State Machines

To reflect the influence of diverse battlefield information to the operational effectiveness (OE) of weapon systems, this article gives a novel evaluation method. The method is based on a set of simultaneous probabilistic finite-state machines (SPFSMs). It can evaluate the OE of the whole system and subeffectiveness of subsystems simultaneously. This makes it convenient to analyze the main OE influencing factors and to provide effectiveness improvement plans. To achieve this, the traditional probabilistic finite-state machine (PFSM) model of the whole system is decomposed into a set of PFSM models of subsystems. This makes it possible to consider more influencing factors of both friendly and hostile forces, without a sharp increase in the model size. To make the method applicable universally, this article proposes a complete theoretical system of SPFSM sets, including the definition and properties. And to reflect the random property of system inputs, a set of input probabilities is added to traditional PFSM definitions. Based on this theory, this article gives concrete OE evaluation methods and steps. A simulation example of an antiship missile is given and analyzed to demonstrate the utility of the proposed method.