Risk Assessment of Regional Water Resources and Forewarning Model at Different Time Scales

With the goal of making full use of water resources, a risk assessment of regional water resources and a forewarning model was studied in this paper. The model is built upon risk indexes in the system, proceeding from the whole structure and its component parts at different time scales. A long-term approach is taken to establish the long-term forewarning model of regional water resources with three levels of prediction, assessment, and forewarning. An hydrological model is employed to simulate the further value of an index. Set pair analysis method is adopted to calculate the connection degree of index risk and systematic risk through a multivariate connection number, while the weight of a single index is determined on the different influences and their respective connection degrees are updated. The comprehensive assessment is made by an assessment matrix with connection degree of comprehensive index. The comparison judging method is used to compartmentalize the warning degree of water resources on risk assessment comprehensive index with forewarning standards, and then the long-term local conditions for proposing the planning scheme of water resources. A real-time forewarning approach is also used to establish the real-time forewarning model of regional water resources, which introduces the real-time correction technique of the Kalman filter based on the long-term forewarning model, and then the real-time local conditions for proposing an emergency plan for water resources. The application results show that the proposed model has strong logical superiority and regional adaptability with a strict theoretical system, flexible methods, correct and reasonable results, and simple implementation, providing a new way for researching on the risk assessment and forewarning of regional water resources. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.