The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input-output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects

This article examines the potential effects of peak oil on Spanish tourism and indirectly on the rest of the economy. We construct several scenarios of price increases in oil, related fossil fuels and their inflationary effects. These scenarios provide the context for an input-output (I/O) analysis which uses I/O tables extended with Tourism Satellite Accounts. The analysis comprises three steps: (1) applying an I/O price model to estimate the price change of tourism services in Spain due to an increase in the prices of oil and other fossil fuels; (2) assessing the effects of price changes on demand for tourism services; and (3) estimating the impacts of demand change on the country's economy using an I/O demand model. The results show that a decreased demand for tourism services results in the greatest fall in outputs in the tourism-related shares of air, water, land and railway transport sectors. These are followed by tourism agencies' activities, non-market recreational, cultural and sporting activities, restaurants, and hotels. Depending on the oil price scenario adopted, GDP (Gross domestic product) decreases between -0.08% and -0.38% and the number of jobs lost through direct and indirect effects varies between approximately 20,000 and 100,000. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.