Models of the probability distribution of extreme wave crest elevation

Statistical models for the probability distribution of the largest crest height elevation in both storms and contiguous 3-hour periods are described. The models have the following features: they use a second order distribution of crest heights; they take into account both tides and surges in a simplified joint probability structure; they are formulated in terms of both contiguous three-hour periods and a peaks over threshold storm model. The models are applied to measured and model data from two areas in the North Sea. The results are found to depend critically on the long-term distribution of sea-state and ways of defining this distribution are discussed.