Mathematical modeling of the spread of divorce in Spain

Evidence shows that divorces are related to the economy and social contagion, as well as to the existence of a difference in happiness between the couple. This paper deals with the mathematical modeling of divorce propagation allowing the estimation of the future divorced population. We use a coupled discrete linear-quadratic difference system model and data collected from the Spanish Statistics Institute (INE). A sensitivity analysis of the growth of the divorced population with respect to the contagion rate is included, and several different economic scenarios are considered. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.