COINTEGRATION EVALUATION TOOLS FOR ENTERPRISES STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM UPGRADING

The paper proposes tools for improving the strategic management system for assessing the processes dynamics and the level of their intensity and non-stationarity by local resource components of industrial enterprise as indicators of organizational and economic development and forecasting its change, as well as determining the structure of the strategic management system of enterprise development with emphasis on its resource communication component that will improve the efficiency of information exchange in the management process in the current context of increased importance of information resources as important elements that provide business entities competitive advantages. In this paper, the complex of models of research of development dynamics of enterprise activity spheres is built, which unlike the existing ones takes into account the non-stationary character of the behavior of these processes. This complex is based on the methods of multidimensional analysis, econometric modeling, decision-making. This complex contains the following steps: formation of the information sets of the company's indicators in the main activity spheres; research of development dynamics of enterprise activity spheres on the basis of building of local and complex integral indicator of enterprise development level; simulation of non-stationarity dynamics of activity spheres on the bases of building and analysis of ECM&VAR-models - cointegration and vector autoregressive models; simulation of the enterprise development priorities on the bases of ECM&VAR-models analysis. For improvement of the strategic development management system, a conceptual scheme of the interconnection of processes, tasks, and models was developed, which provides the solution of the following main tasks: factor study of development trends, study of the internal environment and potential for key business factors and its development dynamics and implementation of adequate management decisions for increasing systems activity effectiveness as a whole.