Paleo-evolution of the Black Sea watershed: sea level and water transport through the Bosporus Straits as an indicator of the Lateglacial-Holocene transition

The paleo-evolution of the Black Sea level during the Lateglacial-Holocene transition is still unclear, which motivates us to provide new estimates for that period based on the analysis of water budget. Hydrological conditions in the Black Sea catchment area are reconstructed here using water balance equation, available data, and constraints based on simple theory relating the runoff ratio with climatic characteristics. In order to estimate the impact of the aridity of climate we consider two alternative scenarios: (1) climate change under constant in time gradient in precipitation and evaporation over land and sea, and (2) climate change accounting for changes in the horizontal distribution of precipitation and evaporation. Hydrological data are compiled from available present-day data and paleo-observations. A number of sensitivity experiments is carried out revealing that the hydrological conditions in the Black Sea watershed should have evolved towards a very arid climate (similar to the present-day climate in the Caspian Sea area) in order to initiate a drop of sea level of similar to 100 m below the sill depth of the Bosporus Straits, as speculated in some recent research. Estimates of sea level changes reveal a qualitative agreement with the coast-line evolution inferred from paleo-observations. The Younger Dryas draw down of the Black Sea starts at about 13.3 to 13 kyr BP, with a maximum low-stand of 104 m at 11.5 kyr BP. In an arid climate scenario the sea level reaches the outlet at about 8.8 to 7.4 kyr BP. Approximately at that time, Mediterranean sea level was about 10 m higher, making flooding events of the Black Sea possible. However, the nature and exact timing of the Holocene reconnection depends also on other (not well known) factors; one of them is the Bosporus sill depth, motivating further research in this field. Estimates of the water transport through the Bosporus Straits are also provided for the time of Lateglacial-Holocene transition.