Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

被引：0
|
作者：
Tol, Richard S. J. [1 ,2 ,3 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Sussex, Dept Econ, Brighton, E Sussex, England
[2] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
[3] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, Amsterdam, Netherlands
来源：
CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2013年 / 117卷 / 04期
关键词：
REGIONALISM; SECURITY; WAR;
D O I：
10.1007/s10584-013-0723-6
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios.
引用
收藏
页码：961 / 970
页数：10
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