Urban Rail Transit Plus-Train Passenger Flow Analysis Method Based on Network Real-time Reachability

Nowadays, to meet passengers' nighttime travel needs and stimulate urban nighttime economic development, subways in some megacities extend their operation hours. In the extended operation period, some routes connecting a given origin and destination (O-D) pair become unreachable which made the transit service providers can't use the conventional method to analysis the passenger flow of plus-train in the extended operation period. This paper proposed a methodology for calculating the passenger flow of the plus-trains based on automatic fare collection (AFC) data and realized train timetable. Considering real-time reachability of the routes which connected an O-D pair, a weighted assignment function among the remaining reachable routes is provided. Then we calculate the passenger flow of each plus-train by estimating which trains were chosen. Initial case study on Shanghai metro shows that the proposed method works well, the calculated plus-train flow and actual survey results match more than 90% which could provide reliable passenger flow data for the optimization of the network plus-train schedule.