Grey system analysis in the field of medicine and health

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to predict hospital respiratory system infection rate by using the gray GM(1,1) model, and to provide theoretical basis for the prospective study on hospital respiratory system infection management. Design/methodology/approach The annual respiratory system infection rate of a comprehensive third-class hospital in Yan'an is collected from 2011 to 2017. The GM(1,1) model is used for prediction, and mean absolute percentage error is used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the model. Findings GM(1,1) statistical prediction model is established with good fitting degree and high reliability of extrapolation prediction. Originality/value The GM(1,1) model can well predict the respiratory system infection rate of the hospital.